September 2, 2004
With all of the hype and media-driven frenzy surrounding this year’s presidential election, there is no doubt that the affair will bring due attention and mass viewers. The first scheduled debate will be at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida, Thursday, September 30. Jim Lehrer, who is the anchor and executive editor of The NewsHour on PBS, will act as moderator. The first and third debates, as well as the vice presidential debate, will show the candidates seated at a table with the moderator. The second debate will use the town meeting format in which undecided voters, selected by the Gallup Organization, will question the candidates. Each debate will last approximately ninety minutes, starting at 9 p.m. ET, and will take place before a live audience.
With the start of the debates less than two months away, analysts and other elite are already predicting what they believe will be the outcome. The first debate, which will be aired on Fox (I suggested the first debate be called “Jimmy in the Middle”, but who listens to me?), may very well be the beginning of the end for one of the hopefuls. Some of the hot topics on the roster are sure to include the War in Iraq, plans regarding health care and the economy, and most recently, the withdrawing of troops from overseas—which Bush announced would take effect in the near future. Also count on other issues, including gay marriage, education, homeland and national security to be brought to the table.
As the debates take shape and begin to unfold, the true faces of the two candidates will also begin to take their true form. The two hopefuls will answer their series of questions the way they are convicted and will be allowed to counter each others’ responses. Bush will be defending the War in Iraq, the economy, traditional marriage, and his tax cuts. Kerry will be defending his lackadaisical record regarding his job as a senator, among other things. It is no surprise that it is being said that this may be one of the most heated debates between two of the most heated rivals in a long while.
When envisioning the setting, the dialogue and the faces, you can’t help but imagine a pay-per-view brawl. It’s inevitable: crowds screaming, punches being thrown, ears being bit off. George W. Bush and John F. Kerry on the same stage, facing each other; one table, two chairs—or possibly three: One for Bush and two for Kerry in case he opts to change positions. Yes, this event may bring the highest ratings that Fox has had since “Temptation Island”. Expect the crowds to be interesting as well. We are going to have the ranch hands on the right with Charleston Heston and all of the movie stars on the left with that one guy from Gigli. Well maybe not, but who wouldn’t like to see the event played up a little? They could even put Bush in a cowboy hat and let Kerry wear his three, yes three, purple hearts (not that he wouldn’t anyways, he is so darned proud of them, and we are too).
So the debate starts, the two hopeful do what politicians do best. The debate ends. The second and third begin and end in the same manner, so on and so on, and then we have the big post-game report brought to you by your friends at the Gallup Organization. Lets analyze the possible outcomes shall we?
The debates could result in any one of three outcomes:
- Small bounce –One candidate could come out of the debate with a small bounce and lead the other candidate due to some undecided voters making up their minds.
- Large bounce –A Kennedy/Nixon-esque outcome could occur, putting either candidate ahead considerably by convincing undecided voters and/or swaying some political opposites.
- No Bounce –This outcome is the most likely considering the fact that both candidates already have well-established foundations and there are not many undecided voters. This outcome would leave both candidates virtually unchanged in the polls.
Given the possible outcomes of these debates, it is nothing short of crucial that the two entrants put on a good show when the lights turn on. The opinion of many may very well hang in the balance. In the end, those opinions may or may not be swayed, but one will guarantee that the candidates are not going to take a chance and let anything go unsaid. After all, what is a debate for? The two big wigs finally get to express their own opinions, in the own words, while all of America watches. In the infamous words of Late Show host David Letterman, this will be an event that will make you want to “TiVo it, tape it, and bring it in.”